Throughout human history, zoonotic diseases, illnesses that jump from animals to humans, have shaped civilizations, triggered pandemics, and rewritten the course of economies. 

The Black Death, which ravaged Europe in the 14th century, originated from bacteria transmitted by fleas that lived on rats. Ebola, HIV, and SARS-CoV-2, which caused COVID-19, all had animal origins. As humanity's relationship with animals has become increasingly industrialized through factory farming, the risk of zoonotic spillover has escalated.

Some diseases are transmitted through direct contact with animals, such as rabies from a bite or tuberculosis from infected cattle. Others spread through the consumption of poorly cooked meat, contaminated dairy products, or wet markets that sell live animals. Vector-borne diseases, where insects like mosquitoes and ticks act as intermediaries, transfer pathogens from animals to humans.

Factory Farms and the Growing Threat of Zoonotic Pandemics

The intensification of industrial agriculture has amplified these risks. The crowded, high-density conditions of factory farms create a breeding ground for disease. Animals raised in confined spaces experience high levels of stress, which weakens their immune systems and increases their susceptibility to infections. When a pathogen emerges in this environment, it can mutate rapidly and spread with alarming efficiency.

This is particularly concerning with influenza viruses, which frequently originate in birds and pigs before adapting to humans. Bird flu has been detected in sheep, raising concerns about the virus's ability to cross species boundaries. Such a discovery underscores the unpredictability of zoonotic diseases, particularly in terms of cross-species transmission and the potential for rapid evolution of health threats.

Philip Lymbery, author and global CEO of Compassion in World Farming, thinks the danger is serious: "Factory farms are a ticking time bomb for future pandemics," he says. "Hundreds of coronaviruses are in circulation, most of them among animals including pigs, camels, bats, and cats. Sometimes those viruses jump to humans."

Antibiotics, widely used in industrial farming to promote growth and prevent disease, exacerbate the issue. Overuse has led to the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria, which can jump to humans through direct exposure, contaminated food, or environmental runoff from farms. The World Health Organization has repeatedly warned that antibiotic resistance could become one of the greatest threats to human health, rendering common infections untreatable. COVID-19 was a wake-up call, but it was not the first time a zoonotic virus wreaked havoc on global health. The HIV/AIDS epidemic, which originated from nonhuman primates, has killed over 40 million people since it emerged in the 20th century.

The 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic, which was linked to pig farming, spread globally within months. Bird flu strains continue to pose a significant threat, with highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) causing sporadic human infections, resulting in a fatality rate of over 50 percent.

Reimagining Protein: Innovations That Could Prevent the Next Pandemic

Despite these risks, the global demand for animal protein is surging. Humans now eat 350 million metric tons of meat annually, nearly "a thousand Empire State Buildings in carcass weight," according to academic and writer Tim Searchinger. The United Nations estimates that meat production will increase by more than 70 percent by 2050. This trajectory presents challenges not only for climate change, deforestation, and water pollution but also for the likelihood of future pandemics.

However, emerging innovations in food technology present possible solutions. Precision fermentation and cultivated meat are being explored as methods to reduce dependence on traditional livestock. Precision fermentation, which is used to produce dairy-identical proteins without the need for cows, utilizes engineered microbes to create compounds such as whey and casein.

Cultivated milk, bio-identical to cow milk but grown in a bioreactor rather than in a cow, is expected to enter the market soon.Cultivated meat, grown from animal cells in bioreactors, provides real meat without the need for slaughterhouses or crowded factory farms.

These technologies have the potential to transform global protein production, significantly lowering the risk of zoonotic disease spillover. Because they bypass live animals, they eliminate the risks associated with confined feeding operations, antibiotic resistance, and cross-species viral mutations. Studies suggest that precision fermentation and cultivated dairy could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 96 percent compared to conventional dairy farming.

Jeff Tripician, who has worked in the meat industry for 40 years, recently moved to head a cultivated meat company based in the Netherlands. He told the Future of Foods Interviews podcast that, "Cultivated meat is the only solution on the table." In regard to bird flu, he went on to say that, "Livestock disease could wipe out huge areas of herds. We're seeing that in the U.S. with egg-laying hens. Eight percent of the supply has been euthanized."

Challenges for alternative proteins remain, including regulatory hurdles, production scaling issues, and consumer acceptance barriers. Governments worldwide are still determining how to classify and approve these products for sale, with Singapore leading the way in regulatory approval for cultivated meat. The U.S., Israel, and UK regulators are following closely behind, but widespread commercialization is still a few years away. Affordability is also a concern. Although costs are declining, cultivated meat remains significantly more expensive than conventional meat. However, as production scales, prices are expected to fall.

A Turning Point: Reducing Pandemic Risk Through Food System Reform

The transition away from industrial animal farming will take time, but the need for change is apparent. If the world continues down its current path, the risks of future pandemics will only grow. Addressing this problem requires serious attention, including government policies that promote alternative proteins, investment in food technology, and increased public awareness of the health impacts of factory farming.

Experts in epidemiology, virology, and food innovation continue to examine the intersection of food production and disease risk.Dr. Michael Greger, physician and author of Bird Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching, has long warned about the pandemic potential of factory farming.Dr. Rob Wallace, an evolutionary biologist and author of Big Farms Make Big Flu, examines how industrial agriculture fuels the evolution of viruses.

Journalists covering the relationship between food, health, and climate change will need to monitor closely how food production impacts disease risk. There is no single solution, but reducing reliance on industrially farmed animals could significantly lower the likelihood of the next global pandemic.

Alex Crispis a freelance journalist focusing on environment, animal welfare, and new technology. He has a background in law, journalism, and teaching. He is the host of the Future of Foods Interviews podcast.

This article was produced for the Observatory by Earth | Food | Life, a project of the Independent Media Institute and is published on this site by arrangement with the Big News Network news agency.